Hattrick Match Analysis

Predictor v2.0

The HTMS match predictor is a tool that tells you how should have ended a match with some specific ratings. The calculation of the prediction has been made deeply analyzing lots of matched downloaded from hattrick. The study results are available here: Realization

If you want to calculate the results of the whole season of a specific serie, use this tool instead: Table of statistical truth

• Special Events are not taken into account
• Default set pieces chance of realization is set to 50%
• If tactic level is not set, excellent is taken as prediction value
• Tactic effectiveness should take in account the medium skill level of players in the field. Since this is not possible, the medium level is taken from the total hatstats of the match
• CA tactic taken in account is the new one, the one that is active since january 2010. The effectiveness is calculated with a bynomial progression starting from the total hatstats of the match

How is the result calculated?

Predictor gives two different results: calculated score and percentages.

The calculated score is the number shown over the and represents the predicted result as an exact score (e.g. 1.33 - 3.45). This score is calculated following the mathematical model we elaborated after analyzing the matches in thew DB. What the predictor does is to guess the medium number of actions that the ball possession gives to both teams, then distributing those actions on the three attack sides, finally calculating the expected goals on each side given the attack/defense ratio. The calculated score thus is only a math calculation based on rating comparison.

The bar, on the other hand, shows the percentages of victory, draw, loss. Those values come from a statistical analysis on data, not from a calculation or a prediction. The percentages are calculated taking from the DB all the matches with same or similar rating ratio, then counting the number of victories, draws and losses and showing them as a percentage. Obviously on that purpose a 8-0 score count as a victory as a 2-1 score. So the percentage values are not a guess, but just a report of what as already happened.